San Diego Strikeouts?

Much has been made about the San Diego Padres improved offense going into the 2015 season. The additions of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and Derek Norris have a lot people labeling the Padres a legitimate contender for the National League West in 2015. While I am not arguing that the offense did not improve with these moves, it has nowhere to go but up after finishing last in runs scored in all of Major League Baseball in 2014, it may not be as strong as Padres fans are expecting. Last year, the Padres finished with the sixth most strikeouts in the National League and the 10th most in all of baseball. The team combined to strikeout 1,294 times in 5,905 plate appearances, about 22% of the time. The addition of these five players, assuming each player stays healthy and plays for the Padres, will most likely lead to an even greater strikeout percentage for the 2015 San Diego Padres.

Listed below are the 2014 and career strikeout percentages of the Padres five newest additions:

Player	PA (2014)	SO (2014)	SO Pct. (2014)	PA (Career)	SO (Career)	SO Pct. (Career)
Upton	641	171	27%	4,314	1,026	24%
Kemp	599	145	24%	4496	1,064	24%
Myers	361	90	25%	734	181	25%
Middlebrooks	234	70	30%	894	238	27%
Norris	442	86	19%	982	223	23%
Total	2277	562	25%	11420	2732	24%

If we learned anything from last season, especially during the postseason, it is the importance of putting the ball in play. During last year’s regular season the San Francisco Giants struck out 20% (1245/6087) of the time, and in the playoffs they struck out 16% of the time (109/676). During last year’s regular season the Kansas City Royals struck out 16% of the time (985/6058), and in the playoffs they struck out 18% of the time (105/572).

Pennant Winners: 1983-2014

In the book The Hidden Game of Baseball, written by John Thorn and Pete Palmer, chapter 12 discusses the home and road winning percentages of the 166 teams who had won their league’s Pennant through the 1982 season (starting with 1901). According to the book, the league average home winning percentage, based on historical averages from 1901-1982, stands at .543; while the league average road winning percentage stands at .457.* Thorn and Palmer stated that out of the 166 pennant winners, through the 83 Major League seasons from 1901-1982, only 24 had home or road performances less than 10 percent above average (14.5% of pennant winners). To perform 10 percent above average at home a team needs to produce a .597 winning percentage; to perform 10 percent above average on the road a team needs to produce a .503 winning percentage. Only 7 of these 24 pennant winners played below .503 on the road, while 16 played below .597 at home.

Interestingly, in the 31 seasons since 1982, in which pennants were crowned**, 30 pennant winners have failed to play at least 10 percent above average either at home or on the road (48.4% of pennant winners). Now there are many factors as to why this percentage has risen so dramatically over the past 32 years, not the least of which is the addition of more teams and rounds in the playoffs. However, according to The Hidden Game of Baseball, this percentage was on the rise in the 15 years leading up to the 1983 season; largely because the AL and NL both split into two divisions for the 1969 season creating the need for a League Championship round in the playoffs. Out of the 30 pennant winners during this time period (1983-2014) 17 failed to play at least 10 percent above average at home, while 13 failed to play at least 10 percent above average on the road. Here is the list:

Year	Team	Pct.	Home Pct.	Road Pct.	BPF
1983	Philles	0.556	0.617	0.494	99
1984	Padres	0.568	0.593	0.543	100
1987	Twins	0.525	0.691	0.358	105
1988	Dodgers	0.584	0.556	0.613	98
1989	Giants	0.568	0.654	0.481	97
1990	Reds	0.562	0.568	0.556	105
1991	Braves	0.58	0.593	0.568	106
1993	Blue Jays	0.586	0.593	0.58	101
1996	Braves	0.593	0.691	0.494	105
1997	Indians	0.534	0.543	0.525	103
1997	Marlins	0.568	0.642	0.494	95
1999	Yankees	0.605	0.593	0.617	98
2000	Mets	0.58	0.679	0.481	96
2000	Yankees	0.54	0.55	0.531	99
2001	Dimondbacks	0.568	0.593	0.543	108
2003	Marlins	0.562	0.654	0.469	98
2005	Astros	0.549	0.654	0.444	101
2005	White Sox	0.611	0.58	0.642	103
2006	Tigers	0.586	0.568	0.605	100
2006	Cardinals	0.516	0.613	0.42	99
2007	Rockies	0.552	0.622	0.481	107
2008	Rays	0.599	0.704	0.494	101
2008	Phillies	0.568	0.593	0.543	102
2009	Phillies	0.574	0.556	0.593	101
2010	Rangers	0.556	0.63	0.481	109
2011	Cardinals	0.556	0.556	0.556	98
2012	Tigers	0.543	0.617	0.469	105
2012	Giants	0.58	0.593	0.568	89
2014	Royals	0.549	0.519	0.58	105
2014	Giants	0.543	0.556	0.531	95

Bold = Highest and Lowest for each column

Notes

* Major League Baseball has gone through numerous changes during the 32 seasons since 1982, including the addition of 4 more teams. It is very likely that these changes have led to a difference in what constitutes a league average home and road winning percentage. However, for the sake of this article, lets assume that the league average winning percentages between 1983-2014 are identical to the league average winning percentages between 1901-1982.

** No postseason was played in 1994.

Sources

• The Hidden Game of Baseball
• Baseball Reference